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Weather with Eric Snodgrass from FCS Financial

Spring Recap - After a cool start to the growing season in May, the June and July temperatures were above average and had very sporadic rains which led to regional drought development. Heavy rains at the end of the month of July erased most drought concerns. July total precipitation for MO now ranks in the top 15 wettest Julys over the last 125 years.

August Outlook – The first week of August has broken away from the early summer temperature trends and gave us all a taste of Fall with temperatures 5-10°F below normal. However, the jet stream is going back north into Canada while a trough develops over the Pacific Northwest. This will allow for broad ridging over MO and a return to above average temperatures. Normally when we think about the hotter conditions we begin to worry about drought, but in this particular pattern the moisture transport out of the Gulf of Mexico will not be shut down. The end result is that the remainder of August will have a lot of thunderstorm activity. Some of these storms will produce locally heavy rains but due to the scattered nature of thunderstorm development, some fields will be missed.

Long Range - The long range outlook will be focused on the developing La Nina. All summer, this La Nina has struggled to get going despite cooler waters in the Pacific Ocean. Long range guidance suggests it will strengthen later this summer and early fall. This will lead to a warm and potentially dry finish to the growing season. There is two caveats. First, La Nina’s events in the Pacific are very well correlated with above average hurricane activity. The National Hurricane Center is called for this season to be 150% - 200% of normal. Late summer and Fall hurricanes can form in the Gulf Of Mexico and after making landfall along the Gulf Coast, the remnants of these hurricanes can make if pretty far to the north into MO bring with them heavy rains. Secondly, if the La Nina fails to materialize and remains in the neutral position, it will likely be warm later this summer and early fall, but possibly favor a lot more thunderstorm activity.

Global Weather – we are watching the Yangtze River basin very carefully for widespread flooding. Since June 1, parts of that river basin have seen 45-60+ inches of rainfall. News agencies have reported on the stress on the levee and dam systems on this river – especially the Three Gorges Dam. Remember that there is a lot of productive agriculture in this river basin and almost a half billion people. In Europe, regional drought development in France and Germany has been reported, but weather across Ukraine has yet to cause major issues with the quality of their crops. Finally, drought and wildfires are being observed in Brazil’s central growing regions. Should this drought persist, it will delay the planting of soybeans and subsequently the safrinha crops of corn and cotton. Keep an eye on this!

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